TeslaTSLA rivals XPengXPEV, Li AutoLI, XiaomiXIACY, NioNIO and ZeekrZK will report May electric vehicle sales on Sunday. BYDBYDDF, which just launched a massive China EV price war, will report sales on Sunday or Monday.
Tesla does not disclose monthly China EV sales but weekly EV registration data point to lackluster deliveries.
Please watch the video at Investors.com – How China’s BYD Is Beating Tesla As Musk Faces Challenges
On May 23, BYD slashed prices by up to 34% on many of its BYD-branded EVs, especially at the lower end. That has spurred several rivals to announce their own big discounts. On Friday, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers urged an end to the price war. It’s unclear how much the China EV price war will affect May sales, but it should definitely impact June deliveries.
Meanwhile, on Friday, President Donald Trump said China has «totally violated» the trade war truce. He didn’t give specifics, but it’s reportedly regarding China’s rare-earth exports. On May 12, the U.S. and China slashed tariffs on each other, but it’s only for 90 days. The tariffs don’t directly affect China EV makers, which are shut out from the U.S., but a weaker domestic economy would hurt demand.
BYD Sales
BYD sales should be about 390,000 in May, up 3% vs. April and 18% vs. a year earlier. Overseas sales should be about 100,000.
In April, BYD sold more fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) than plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) for the first time in more than a year. The Tesla rival is now the clear global leader in BEVs as well as EVs overall.
BYD’s massive discounts, officially only through June 30, reportedly come amid rising dealer inventories. The move also follows BYD’s push to offer advanced driver-assist systems (ADAS) standard on all its EVs, even those below $10,000.
BYD is the low-cost producer thanks to its in-house production and ability to extract volume discounts from suppliers. Also, booming overseas sales help offset domestic pressure. BYD’s exports generally have much-higher margins than China sales.
But there’s little doubt that the magnitude of the cuts will hurt BYD’s profits at least in the near term.
XPeng Deliveries
XPeng deliveries should be about 32,000, Deutsche Bank forecasts. That would be down 9% vs. April but up 215% vs. a year earlier. That includes some 4,000 EVs exported.
XPeng’s hot start to 2025 reflects strong demand for the Mona M03 sedan, the first EV from XPeng’s more-affordable Mona sub-brand. The Mona M03 Max variant offers high-end ADAS for less than $19,0000.
XPeng sells only BEVs for now. It will soon launch some extended range electric vehicles (EREV), essentially a form of PHEV.
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Li Auto Deliveries
Li Auto deliveries should be 45,000, up 33% vs. April and 28% vs. a year earlier, Deutsche Bank said, thanks to new facelifted models.
Li Auto sells mostly EREVs, but does sell the BEV minivan Mega, with several BEV SUVs set to launch in the coming months.
Nio Deliveries
Nio deliveries should be roughly 27,000 in May, Deutsche Bank estimates, up 13% vs. April and 31% vs. a year earlier. That would include 17,000 for the main Nio brand, 7,000 the mainstream Orvo brand and 3,000 for the low-priced Firefly brand, which began deliveries in late April.
Nio CEO William Li said Saturday that Onvo’s May deliveries were up at least 40%, suggesting at least 6,160 vehicles. The brand’s only EV, the Onvo L60, competes with the Tesla Model Y.
Zeekr Deliveries
Zeekr deliveries should be 40,000, up 25% vs. April and 8% vs. a year earlier. That would be roughly 17,000 under the Zeekr brand and 23,000 for the Lynk brand. Zeekr Group of Chinese auto giant Geely, which has offered to buy out Zeekr shareholders.
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Xiaomi Deliveries
Xiaomi deliveries should be about 28,000, Deutsche Bank estimates, down about 2% vs. April due to a temporary production halt during May Day holiday. That would easily top 20,000 for an eighth straight month. The handset-turned-EV maker does not give specific sales figures.
Xiaomi is production constrained for its only EV, the SU7, which is outselling the Tesla Model 3. It recently began selling a souped-up variant, the SU7 variant.
In May, Xiaomi unveiled the YU7 crossover, a Tesla Model Y rival, but official prices and preorders will start in July.
Tesla Deliveries
Tesla demand has continued to be weak in the second quarter, even in China, which had been a relative bright spot for the EV maker. Deutsche Bank expects Tesla China local sales of 39,000 in May, up 32% vs. April but down 30% vs. a year earlier.
China EV Stocks
BYD stock, which trades over the counter in the U.S., dived 16.7% to 49.55 last week on the automaker’s price war. Shares plunged from record highs below a buy point and the 50-day line.
XPeng stock gave up 3.45% to 19.31 last week, even with strong initial demand for the Mona M03 Max. XPEV has a 27.16 buy point, but the May 21 high of 22.85 could be an early entry. Shares are below the 50-day though.
Xiaomi stock, which also trades over the counter, sank 5.4% to 32.02 last week despite reporting strong earnings, falling further below a 34.26 cup-with-handle buy point, according to MarketSurge.
Li Auto stock fell 2% to 28.34 last week amid mixed earnings. LI stock now has a 29.73 cup-with-handle buy point.
Nio stock plunged 7.3% to 3.54, still in a long downturn and not far from April’s five-year low.
Zeekr stock tumbled 9.9% to 26.29. ZK stock has a 30.30 cup-with-handle buy point but Geely-Zeekr buyout buzz adds to the uncertainty.
Tesla Stock
TSLA stock rose 2.1% last week to 346.46, but that was also the weekly low. On Tuesday, shares cleared a 354.99 aggressive entry but fell back below that on Friday.
Tesla stock has been surging on robotaxi hopes and CEO Elon Musk leaving the White House. A limited robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas, is weeks away, reportedly on June 12.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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