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Last Updated on: 24th August 2025, 12:10 am
In a recent article on an uncharacteristically down July for BYD sales in China, my now colleague José Pontes asked some pointed questions: Are we seeing “peak BYD”? “Peak PHEV”? A “succession crisis” for their most popular model? Having obsessively followed BYD for a while, I thought I could provide some perspective.
The Song Plus was BYD’s best-selling vehicle and the best-selling vehicle in China overall in the first half of the year. BYD’s model lines are split into different series: the Dynasty series, with model names based on historical dynasties, and the Ocean series, with model names based on sea animals (or, previously, warships). These different series were typically sold at different dealerships. However, the Song Plus is an outlier, being sold at Ocean dealerships.
At the end of July, BYD introduced the Sealion 06. This is essentially the successor to the Song Plus, offered as a BEV and a PHEV. It was renamed to better fit the Ocean dealers that sell it. The Sealion 06 is a new car in China (not to be confused with the overseas Sealion 6) on a new platform with more technology and better equipment, but with similar pricing. The BEV version is also stronger, with RWD and a frunk. Throughout July, Ocean dealerships were actively reducing Song Plus inventory to make way for the Sealion 06.
Sealion 06 sales are still ramping up, and it has been rolling out to different markets within China throughout this month, such as Hangzhou on August 7th, Beijing on August 10th, and Guangzhou on August 13th. However, initial reports out of China already place it as the best-selling vehicle in its class and the second best-selling SUV, even before it was available throughout the country. As expected, BEV versions have been outselling PHEV versions. Combined with remaining sales of the Song Plus, which is essentially the previous generation, it is heading back to the top of the lists. BYD might keep selling the Song Plus alongside the Sealion 06 for a little while, like Ram did with the 1500 Classic, but I expect volume to shift to the new Sealion 06 in China.
However, the Song Plus tooling is heading to overseas manufacturing plants, which recently started production or will soon. Uzbekistan started production last year, for example. And it is the best-selling NEV in other markets, like Turkiye (as the Seal U), which also has a manufacturing plant scheduled to come online next year. The Song Plus’s days may be numbered within China, but it still has a future in global markets.
In addition, other older models, particularly those based on the 4th Generation DM-i platform, are seeing production shift overseas. The Song Pro is to be produced in Brazil, where it was the best-selling NEV in the first half of this year. The Chaser/Destroyer, which used to show up on top selling vehicle lists in China, recently started production in Thailand (to be sold under several other names).
Overall, BYD has been investing more in overseas manufacturing than at home. This may not be the company’s most advanced technology, especially in countries with technology sharing agreements, but it is a significant step up from competing products in those markets. And it is likely to fuel BYD’s global growth, which has been faster overseas than at home this year.
Meanwhile, BYD hasn’t stopped developing PHEVs. The most recent news being a 10% reduction in fuel consumption for the 5th generation DM-i platform, created through an AI-enabled system optimization based on real-world usage data that was rolled out via an OTA update to new and existing vehicles. It is first being rolled out to the Qin L and Seal 06, reducing fuel consumption after the battery range runs out to 2.6l/100km (~90 mpg) NEDC. Even though this is an optimistic rating system, these midsized cars are rated as the most fuel-efficient under that system. Similar optimizations are to be rolled out to other vehicles, with more updates possible in the future, especially with new hardware. A 10% improvement from just a software update is pretty impressive when you really start thinking about it (biofuels have a smaller percentage impact, at about 6% of US transportation fuel). Overall, the improved performance has the potential to stimulate PHEV sales in the short term and thus extend sales life, even if BEVs have the long-term advantage.
In a meeting with dealers in China, Wang Chaunfu stated that BYD was in the process of reducing redundant models. We have become accustomed recently to BYD continuing old models while a multitude of new models are introduced. As models change and production shifts, there can be some temporary disruptions, but these changes are necessary to set up for the long term. Looking at August, based on preliminary discussions, I anticipate another transitional month in China, with the Sealion 06 still ramping up and other products shifting. September will be interesting.
Overall, BYD’s sales are driven by product. New product is taking over while older product falls back. While factors like Black PR can have some temporary influence, strong product tends to overcome it in the long term. Last year, BYD had stronger PHEV product introductions and sales. This year, BEVs have had stronger product introductions and sales. It is hard to be sure what next year will bring. More effort might go to product for outside markets, with growth shifting accordingly. But with over 120,000 R&D engineers and more EV intellectual property than anyone, I would bet that the long-term “peak” is far down the road.
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