BYD Co. (BYDDF) could be entering a tougher stretch as investor confidence wanes. The automaker’s shares slipped 1.9% to HK$98.70 in early Hong Kong trading Monday, hovering near a nine-month low after reporting a 12% year-on-year drop in October sales to 441,706 vehicles. The stock has now fallen about 36% since its late-May peak, reflecting growing unease after two consecutive quarters of profit declines. Analysts said the downturn comes as Beijing’s clampdown on aggressive discounting blunts one of BYD’s key levers for sustaining sales growth.
BYD also lost its position as China’s top-selling automaker to SAIC Motor, which delivered 453,978 vehicles last month. While October was BYD’s strongest month of 2024, the company still needs to average roughly 450,000 units in both November and December to reach its 4.6 million-vehicle target for the year. Morgan Stanley said that goal remains within reach if the current pace holds, though Bloomberg Intelligence suggested fourth-quarter shipments could decline between 5% and 10% following October’s slowdown. That pressure adds to the narrative that BYD, once China’s undisputed EV leader, may need to recalibrate its pricing and production strategy to defend market share heading into 2025.
Competitors, meanwhile, are capitalizing on the opening. Geely, Nio, Xpeng, and Leapmotor all reported record-high monthly sales in October, and Xiaomi posted another strong month of deliveries. Li Auto, however, continued to stumble with its fifth consecutive decline. The mixed landscape signals a maturing EV marketone where scale alone may no longer guarantee dominance. For BYD, sustaining investor confidence could depend on proving that its growth story is shifting from volume expansion to profitability discipline in an increasingly crowded field.
