Tesla Stock Hit By US Demand Woes, China Rivalry As Delivery Estimates Cut

A Tesla Inc TSLA analyst cuts delivery estimates for the electric vehicle giant as more reports show weakened demand.

The Tesla Analyst: Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney maintained a Neutral rating on Tesla and lowered the price target from $295 to $285.

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The Analyst Takeaways: Tesla is showing weak demand in several top countries, Delaney said in a new investor note.

«We’re lowering our Tesla vehicle delivery assumptions and EPS estimates to better reflect weaker monthly datapoints in key regions, and also consumer survey data on Tesla.»

The analyst highlights quarter-to-date deliveries in the U.S. down mid-teens year-over-year. Registration data in Europe shows a 50% year-over-year decline for the month of April. In China, demand is also declining based on key data points.

«We believe 2Q deliveries could end up between 335k and 395k, depending on how strong June results are, and our base case view is now 365k deliveries for 2Q25.»

This base case estimate is down from a previous estimate of 410k deliveries and below the consensus estimate of 417k, according to the report. Along with lowering second-quarter deliveries, the analyst also cuts estimates for 2025, 2026 and 2027 to «better reflect recent vehicle sales datapoints and demand trends.»

The analyst said consumer data on sentiment and hearing positive things about the electric vehicle company is weak for Tesla in North America and Europe, but remains stronger in China.

«This suggests to us that demand/brand issues may be contributing to weakness in the US and European markets, and the decline QTD in China could be the result of competition and product cycle timing.»

Delaney estimates that 2024 deliveries were split as 30% U.S., 37% China, 18% Europe and 10% other geographies.

While the analyst has a price target of $285, the investor report lays out a downside valuation scenario that could take the stock to $150.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock is up 5.36% to $300.54 on Friday versus a 52-week trading range of $167.41 to $488.54. Tesla stock is down 21.8% year-to-date in 2025, with shares falling around 13% in the last five days.

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Photo: Courtesy Tesla