The stock market will enter the third week of the government shutdown after a five-day run of market volatility shaped by US-China trade relations.
At the closing bell on Friday, the S&P 500 (^GSPC), tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) all managed to eke out wins to cap a volatile week that saw swings for the major indexes each day.
In the week ahead, investors will get some clarity on the economic picture, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics set to publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of most watched measures of inflation, on Friday after a delay from its originally planned release date of Oct. 15.
Figures ranging from import prices to retail sales to jobless claims are likely to remain missing from the calendar amid the ongoing government shutdown.
With the shutdown still in effect, the Federal Open Market Committee will also enter its blackout period ahead of the committee’s October meeting, which is set to take place Oct. 28-29.
In the corporate sector, earnings season for the third quarter is properly underway after bank earnings this past week, and a packed roster of companies is set to report in the week ahead. Some of the week’s biggest names include Magnificent Seven stock Tesla (TSLA), chipmaker Intel (INTC), streaming giant Netflix (NFLX), and Coca-Cola (KO), always a marker for retail consumption patterns.
This week will also see reports from the defense contracting majors in Northrop Grumman (NOC) and Lockheed Martin (LMT), along with several of the major telephone network operators, including T-Mobile (TMUS) and AT&T (T).
After Beijing unveiled a sweeping series of new export controls that curtailed shipments of products with even trace amounts of a group of rare metals, President Trump took to Truth Social to threaten 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods before rolling that threat back.
Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump’s tariffs
Rare earth stocks, one of the biggest winners of the past two weeks, gave up some of their gains as moves from Washington and Beijing swung investments up and down throughout the week.
A few days later, Trump made another post to Truth Social, this one labeling Beijing’s cessation of US soybean purchases — a move that has been crushing the US agricultural sector — an «economically hostile act» and threatening that the US may stop buying Chinese cooking oil.
Then, when asked about a potential trade war, Trump told a reporter in the Oval Office that the US is «in one now» with China. On Friday, Trump said his threats of high tariffs on Beijing are «not sustainable.»
For investors, the series of tit-for-tat maneuvers from the world’s two largest economies has proven to be a wobbly trade. Case in point: Gold is on its ninth straight week of gains as investors seek comfort in hard assets, and that rally doesn’t look set to slow down anytime soon. If just half a percent of US assets held by foreign investors were to be moved into gold, JPMorgan analysts said in a recent note, the yellow metal, trading around $4,240 per troy ounce on Friday, could hit $6,000.
Complicating supply chains further, the White House on Friday formalized President Trump’s plan for 25% tariffs on medium and heavy-duty trucks, including a large exception for auto parts after a deluge of objections from truck makers like Paccar (PCAR).
The new tariffs, which are expected to take effect on Nov. 1, include a top-line rate of 25% on everything from box trucks to the largest trucks on the road manufactured overseas. The new tariffs will also include a 10% rate on foreign-made buses.
The announcement from the White House closes the loop on a declaration from Trump at the beginning of the month.
“Beginning November 1st, 2025, all Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks coming into the United States from other Countries will be Tariffed at the Rate of 25%,” he wrote on Truth Social on Oct. 6.
On Oct. 10, Macquarie Bank analysts said in a note that the oil market «remains range-bound and structure remains backwardated, and crude price is not yet reflecting the large, broadly anticipated surpluses.»
In just a bit over a week, that picture has already begun to shift.
Crude oil closed out its third straight week of losses on Friday, with futures on global benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) down around 2.3% and futures on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) down 2.8%.
Several factors are driving the price drops. Perhaps most potently, the OPEC+ cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, continues to up its production targets at each monthly meeting. Most recently, the cartel agreed at the start of this month to boost production by 137,000 barrels per day in November as the member countries — and especially the Saudi kingdom — look to regain market share. At the same time, the volume of oil onboard sea-bound tankers has climbed to more than 1 billion barrels, according to Vortex data cited by Bloomberg, the highest level seen since 2020, when the pandemic left barrels stranded at sea.
De-escalations in the Middle East have also weighed on prices, as the Trump administration has mediated a tentative peace agreement and prisoner swap between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas that, for now, has held. Holding peace could see Iran begin to increase its oil output once again, adding even more supply to the market.
In the most recent blow to oil prices, the International Energy Agency last Tuesday said it now expects next year’s surplus to climb to 4 million barrels per day, raising the agency’s expectations from its previous prediction of 3.3 million barrels per day. Such an overhang would be equivalent to nearly 4% of the world’s entire demand, according to Reuters.
Why haven’t prices dropped precipitously yet? Excessive stockpiling by China throughout the year at levels far beyond the nation’s domestic need has largely kept prices buoyant, but Beijing’s crude purchasing has begun to slow down, according to Bloomberg analysts. Two weeks ago, futures contracts for the US benchmark WTI crude were trading below current rates for the entire year of 2026 — a market condition called contango that says traders are expecting an incoming surplus.
The US’s own crude inventories for the week ended Oct. 10, released Wednesday, rose by 3.5 million barrels per day, down slightly from the previous week’s 3.7 million barrel build.
In response, the Energy Information Agency is forecasting 2026 WTI prices to average $52 per barrel, far below the typical $60-$62 range considered to be a healthy break-even price for the oil industry.
«Market participants have been sick worried about a crude oil glut for almost a year now,» said Bank of America analysts in a recent note. The long-forecast glut is now beginning to show itself in prices.
Economic and earnings calendar
Economic data: No notable economic data.
Earnings calendar: W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Summit Therapeutics (SMMT)
Economic data: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index, October (-12.3 previously)
Earnings calendar: Netflix (NFLX), GE Aerospace (GE), Coca-Cola (KO), Philip Morris International (PM), RTX Corporation (RTX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Texas Instruments (TXN), Danaher Corporation (DHR), Capital One (COF), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Chubb (CB), Northrop Grumman (NOC), 3M (MMM), Elevance Health (ELV), General Motors (GM), Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ), PACCAR (PCAR), Waste Connections (WCN), EQT Corporation (EQT), Equifax (EFX), Haliburton (HAL), Galaxy Digital (GLXY), Mattel (MAT)
Economic data: MBA mortgage applications, week ended Oct. 17, (-1.8% previously)
Earnings calendar: Tesla (TSLA), SAP (SAP), IBM (IBM), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), AT&T (T), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), GE Vernova (GEV), Amphenol Corporation (APH), Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX), CME Group (CME), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Moody’s (MCO), Barclays (BCS), Vertiv Holdings (VRT), United Rentals (URI), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Crown Castle (CCI), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Teck Resources (TECK), Northern Trust (NTRS), Southwest Airlines (LUV)
Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ended Oct. 18 (230,000 expected, 218,000 previously); Continuing claims, week ended Oct. 11; Existing home sales, September (4.07 million expected, 4 million previously); Existing home sales, month-on-month, September (+1.6% expected, -0.2% previously); Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, October (4 previously)
Earnings calendar: Ford Motor Company (F), T-Mobile (TMUS), Blackstone (BX), Intel Corporation (INTC), Union Pacific (UNP), Honeywell International (HON), Newmont Corporation (NEM), Lloyds Banking Group (LYG), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Digital Realty Trust (DLR), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Roper Technologies (ROP), Valero Energy (VLO), CBRE Group (CBRE), Baker Hughes (BKR), PG&E (PCG), Nokia (NOK), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), STMicroelectronics (STM), CenterPoint Energy (CNP), Allegion (ALLE), TransUnion (TRU), Deckers Outdoors (DECK), Hasbro (HAS), AutoNation (AN), American Airlines (AAL)
Economic data: CPI, month-on-month, September (+0.4% expected, +0.4% previously); Core CPI, month-on-month, September (+0.3% expected, +0.3% previously); CPI, year-on-year, September (+3.1% expected, +2.9% previously); Core CPI, year-on-year, September (+3.1% expected, +3.1% previously); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, October preliminary (51.7 expected, 52.0 previously); S&P Global US services PMI, October preliminary (53.5 expected, 54.2 previously); S&P Global US composite PMI, October preliminary (53.9 previously); New home sales, September (710,000 expected, 800,000 previously); New home sales, month-on-month, September (-11.3% expected, 20.5% previously); University of Michigan sentiment, October final reading (55.0 expected, 55.0 previously); Kansas City Fed services activity, October (-9 previously)
Earnings calendar: Procter & Gamble (PG), Sanofi (SNY), HCA Healthcare (HCA), General Dynamics (GD), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), NatWest Group (NWG), Eni (E), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)
Please note: Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was due to be released on Oct. 15; however, it will now come out on Oct. 24, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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