Stock Market Today: Dow Jones, Nasdaq Futures Tumble Amid US-China Trade Tensions—Tesla, IBM, American Airlines In Focus – SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY)

U.S. stock futures were swinging on Thursday following Wednesday’s declines. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower.

A wave of disappointing earnings guidance and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions rattled investor confidence. The Donald Trump administration is considering new restrictions on exports to China that would target products either made with or containing U.S.-developed software.

Additionally, the administration is reportedly in talks with several U.S. quantum computing companies to take ownership stakes in exchange for federal funding.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 3.98% and the two-year bond was at 3.46%. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 96.7% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates in its October meeting.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was up 0.0045% at $667.83, while the QQQ advanced 0.012% to $605.56, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Stocks In Focus

Tesla

• Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) fell 3.04% in premarket on Thursday after reporting better-than-expected revenue for the third quarter, while earnings missed estimates.

• TSLA maintained a stronger price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a poor value ranking, as per Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings. Additional performance details are available here.

International Business Machines

• International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) dropped 7.14% despite reporting better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter after the market closed on Wednesday. IBM also said it now expects constant currency revenue growth of “more than” 5% for full-year 2025, up from prior guidance of “at least” 5%.

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that IBM had a stronger price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a strong quality score. Additional performance details are available here.

American Airlines Group

• American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) was 1.41% higher as analysts expect a quarterly loss of 28 cents per share on revenue of $13.63 billion before the opening bell.

• AAL maintained a strong price trend over the medium term but a weaker trend in the short and long terms, with a moderate growth ranking, as per Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings. Additional information is available here.

Medpace Holdings

• Medpace Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:MEDP) surged 18.52% after it reported third-quarter revenue of $659.9 million and earnings of $3.86 per share, both surpassing analyst estimates.

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that MEDP maintains a stronger price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a robust quality ranking. Additional performance details are available here.

Ford Motor

• Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) shares were unchanged as it is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell. Analysts expect earnings of 36 cents per share on revenue of $43.08 billion.

• Ford maintained a stronger price trend over short, medium, and long terms, with a strong value ranking. Additional performance details, as per Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings, are available here.

Cues From Last Session

Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed on a negative note, with communication services, industrials, and consumer discretionary stocks recording the biggest losses on Wednesday.

Insights From Analysts

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and chief U.S. equity strategist, issued a bold directive toward the Federal Reserve, arguing the central bank is “behind the curve” and must deliver “meaningful” rate cuts.

In a conversation with CNBC, Wilson contended the Fed is trailing the two-year Treasury yield by 75 to 85 basis points, which is “just three cuts to get to neutral.” To truly get “ahead of the curve,” he believes the Fed needs to cut by 150 basis points or more.

He argued the Fed is waiting for a clear signal to act. “The only way they’re going to do that is if we get weaker labor data, which I think is probably forthcoming, or we get some sort of bond volatility,” Wilson said.

This aggressive rate-cut stance supports Wilson’s broader, contrarian thesis that the economy is not “late cycle,” but has already transitioned into an “early cycle new recovery.” He dismissed recent volatility, pointing to market fundamentals as proof of a new cycle. “The stock market is smarter than all of us,” Wilson stated, adding that “earnings revisions now have really exploded higher in a way they only do in a new economic cycle.”

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will be keeping an eye on Thursday;

• The initial jobless claims data for the latest week will be delayed because of the impending shutdown. Existing home sales for September will be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.

• Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee at 10:00 a.m., and Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak at 10:25 a.m. ET.

Commodities, Gold, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 5.220% to hover around $61.54 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.38% to hover around $4,114.22 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $4,381.6 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.16% higher at the 99.0560 level.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 1.16% higher at $109,323.15 per coin.

Asian markets closed higher on Thursday, except South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 indices. India’s NIFTY 50, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Australia’s ASX 200, and China’s CSI 300 rose. European markets were mixed in early trade.

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