Next week will definitely be a busier one as we did have a bit of a data break this week. Obviously the US Government shutdown has hampered US data releases but there was also a lack of high impact data from around the world. .
The week ahead brings a host of high impact data releases from around the globe including inflation data from the US, China and Canada. While we also have a host of Central Bank policymakers speaking.
Let us take a look at some of the key data releases which could shake markets next week.
Asia Pacific Markets
China is facing a pivotal week that will set its economic direction for the next five years, even as new data is expected to confirm a recent slowdown.
From Monday to Wednesday, the Fourth Plenum meetings will be held, with the main goal of discussing China’s important 15th Five-Year Plan for the years 2026 to 2030. Key priorities that are expected to be highlighted include boosting consumer spending, driving technological innovation (especially in areas like AI and semiconductors to achieve self-reliance), and generally shifting toward «high-quality development» to secure long-term growth.
Separately, critical economic data is due on Monday:
Loan Prime Rates: The central bank is expected to keep these key interest rates unchanged.
GDP and Property: Official data is likely to show China’s third-quarter economic growth slowed substantially to around 4.5% for the year. Key monthly data on retail sales and factory output are also expected to show a deceleration. Additionally, data on property prices is expected to confirm the market is still weak, as the government has not yet announced any major new stimulus to turn the sector around.
With the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision coming up on October 30th, two key pieces of economic data are highly important this week: trade and inflation figures.
Japan’s exports are expected to rebound and grow by 4.0% compared to a year ago, mainly because shipments of goods like cars and chip-making machinery are returning to normal following the recent 15% tariff deal with the US At the same time, imports are likely to decrease slightly by 0.5%, largely because global commodity prices are lower. Analysts expect exports to continue normalizing in the coming months due to the September trade agreement.
The overall inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.9% for September, with core prices likely remaining above 3.0%. The main reason inflation has slowed down recently is due to temporary factors, specifically government subsidies for energy and social welfare programs.
Tariffs, Tariffs and More Tariffs
Due to the ongoing US government shutdown, there is a serious lack of clear information on how the economy is actually performing.
The government’s statistical agencies are closed, meaning key reports are delayed, and even when the government reopens, it will take weeks to properly collect and process the missing data.
However, one important piece of information, the September inflation report (CPI) has been confirmed for release. This is not for the Federal Reserve’s benefit (even though they need it for their October 29th meeting), but because the number is legally required to calculate the Social Security cost-of-living increase for 2026.
Experts still expect the report to show a small rise in overall prices (0.4% for the month) and a modest increase in core prices (0.3%). Even if tariffs start making inflation more obvious, the Fed’s biggest concern right now is the weakening job market, meaning a small rise in inflation will not stop them from making a planned quarter-point interest rate cut later this month.
