Chinese automakers are projected to sell more vehicles globally in 2025 than Japanese manufacturers, marking the first time China has surpassed Japan in annual automotive sales after over 20 years of Japanese dominance, according to a Nikkei China report based on industry data through November 2025.
The forecast, based on data from automaker disclosures and S&P Global Mobility, projects that Chinese automakers will sell approximately 27 million vehicles worldwide in 2025, compared with just under 25 million for Japanese automakers. The totals include both passenger and commercial vehicles and cover domestic sales and exports. Sales attribution is based on company ownership and brand nationality, with 50:50 joint ventures counted according to the brand sold.
China’s domestic market is projected to account for roughly 70 percent of total sales by Chinese automakers. New energy vehicles, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), account for nearly 60 percent of passenger-car sales in China.
Industry reports indicate that BYD and Geely have entered the global top ten automakers by sales in 2025, and that Chery has been one of China’s largest exporters, with substantial overseas sales growth.
Chinese vehicle exports continued to grow in 2025. Southeast Asian markets, long dominated by Japanese automakers, are projected to see substantial growth in Chinese sales, with approximately 500,000 vehicles expected to be sold. In Europe, Chinese automakers’ sales are expected to rise to around 2.3 million units, despite existing import tariffs, as export volumes include plug-in hybrid models that are not subject to additional duties.
Emerging market sales are also projected to increase. Africa is expected to see 230,000 vehicles sold, up 32 percent year-on-year, while Latin America is expected to reach 540,000 vehicles, up 33 percent.
Japanese automakers, whose global sales peaked at nearly 30 million vehicles in 2018, are projected to remain just below Chinese volumes in 2025. Reports indicate some Japanese brands experienced sales declines in key regions, including the United States, and that their market share in China has gradually declined relative to local automakers.
The 2025 forecast figures reflect changes in global vehicle sales rankings based on projected volumes and do not imply interpretation or causation beyond the data.
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