Jan. 27, 2026, 4:46 p.m. ET
- Tesla is expected to report disappointing fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on January 28.
- Chinese automaker BYD surpassed Tesla in battery electric vehicle sales in 2025.
- Cybertruck sales fell by nearly 50% in 2025 amid a broader decline in the EV market.
Tesla is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results after the bell on Wednesday, Jan. 28, and industry observers are expecting the company to report troubling numbers, showing it falling further behind Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD.
«The numbers will be ugly. Deliveries down, margins compressed, EPS falling 40%. But that’s not the story,» Howard Yu, professor of management and innovation at the IMD business school in Switzerland, said in a statement. «The story is that 2025 marks the year Tesla lost the BEV crown to BYD. Not by a little. BYD sold 2.26 million electric vehicles to Tesla’s 1.64 million. That’s a 620,000-unit gap that didn’t exist two years ago.»
The projection comes as Tesla has announced major moves like transitioning its Full Self-Drive software to a subscription model and ending its original Autopilot program that has drawn the ire of safety advocates who argued the name itself overpromised the self-driving capabilities of Tesla’s cars.
With all that mind in, the USA TODAY Cars team compiled a list of five things to watch for in Tesla’s earnings presentation.
1. Where will Tesla’s earnings land?
Analysts predict Tesla will report $24.9 billion in revenue and an adjusted earnings per share of $0.44, according to Yahoo Finance.
Tesla experienced a decline in revenue earlier last year while CEO Elon Musk partnered with President Donald Trump to spearhead the Department of Government Efficiency, but the company steadily recovered after Musk announced he’d be taking a step back from that role over the summer.
On Jan. 2, the company said it had produced over 434,358 vehicles and delivered over 418,227 cars, which fell below most Wall Street estimates.
2. How will Elon Musk address the decision to end Autopilot?
Tesla has decided to discontinue its controversial Autopilot system, which has been at the center of federal investigations for years.
The company is ditching the software that was once standard on its cars in favor of a new subscription model for its Full Self-Drive (FSD) software. Teslas now only come standard with cruise control features that are also common on other manufacturers’ vehicles.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has already warned that prices for its Full Self-Drive service, which currently start at $99 per month, are likely to rise as the system becomes refined.
«I should also mention that the $99/month for supervised FSD will rise as FSD’s capabilities improve,» Musk said in a post on the social media platform X, which he also owns. «The massive value jump is when you can be on your phone or sleeping for the entire ride (unsupervised FSD).»
3. Will early Full Self-Drive subscriptions meet Musk’s expectations?
Elon Musk’s most recent compensation package from Tesla includes an operational milestone of 10 million FSD subscriptions.
The earnings call will present an opportunity for Musk to update investors on how the company’s announcement — that they are going move to a monthly subscription model starting on Feb. 14 — has been received by owners.
After the initial announcement, Tesla stock dropped about 0.9% to nearly $442 per share by the opening of trading Wednesday, Jan. 14, on the NASDAQ stock exchange. Prior to Musk’s late-night post, Tesla’s stock was trading at about $446 per share at the close of trading on Tuesday, Jan. 13.
4. Will Musk address struggling Cybertruck sales?
Tesla’s Cybertruck sales were cut nearly in half in 2025, according to new data released by Cox Automotive.
The Silicon Valley electric automaker sold 20,237 of its unconventional electric pickup trucks in 2025, which was 48.1% fewer cars than the 38,965 the company moved in 2024.
The decline came as overall electric car sales fell in 2025, as President Donald Trump and Congress eliminated a popular $7,500 tax credit for EV buyers that the Cybertruck and other models qualified for.
According to new data released Jan. 13 by Cox Automotive, carmakers sold 1,275,714 electric cars in 2025, which was good enough to compose nearly 8% of overall U.S. auto sales for the year. But the industry-wide EV sales number was also down 2% from the 1,301,441 electric cars that auto manufacturers sold in 2024.
5. Will Musk address electric door probes?
Tesla is facing two ongoing federal investigations that are looking into the effectiveness of emergency release systems on its cars.
The sleekly designed vehicles have door handles that can cause problems for first responders, regulators believe.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced Dec. 23, 2025, an investigation into the mechanical door release on the 2022 Tesla Model 3, which is Tesla’s most affordable and second-highest-selling car.
NHTSA said then it was launching a defect investigation after receiving a petition citing allegations that the mechanical door release on the Tesla Model 3 is «hidden, unlabeled, and not intuitive to locate during an emergency.»
The investigation covers an estimated 179,071 cars and it includes one crash that led to injuries. The agency said it will be looking to evaluate the issue and determine whether to grant or deny the petition.
NHTSA in September launched an investigation into the performance of emergency door handles on Tesla’s Model Y compact SUV, which is the Silicon Valley automaker’s most popular model.
The initial investigation covered 174,290 2021 Tesla Model Y’s after the agency said it received nine complaints reporting an inability to open doors on the vehicles.
The Model 3 and Model Y are by far Tesla’s top-selling vehicles. The company reported sales of 406,585 of the two models in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from the 481,166 of the models the company moved in the second quarter.
