Ahead of major Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers releasing their August delivery figures next Monday, Deutsche Bank shared its forecast as usual.
Monthly deliveries for players including Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO), Xiaomi EV, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Leapmotor (HKG: 9863) are expected to hit new highs, while Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) is projected to remain weak.
In a research note released today, analyst Wang Bin’s team expects Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO) to deliver 32,000 vehicles in August, representing a month-on-month increase of about 52 percent and a year-on-year rise of about 59 percent.
If realized, this would mark a new monthly delivery record for Nio Inc, surpassing the previous high of 31,138 units set in December 2024, and the second time exceeding the 30,000-unit threshold.
Specifically, Wang’s team projects deliveries for Nio Inc’s three brands — Nio, Onvo, and Firefly — to be 11,000 units, 17,000 units, and 4,000 units respectively in August.
Nio Inc delivered 21,017 vehicles in July, including 12,675 units for the Nio main brand, 5,976 units for Onvo, and 2,366 units for Firefly.
The company’s domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of August totaled about 21,000 units, according to Deutsche Bank.
Nio Inc’s new order flow is estimated to increase by about 120 percent month-on-month in August, reaching roughly 57,000 units, primarily driven by robust demand for the Onvo L90 SUV, the team said, citing dealer feedback.
New order flow for Nio, Onvo, and Firefly in August were about 15,000, 40,000, and 2,000 units respectively, according to the team.
Onvo officially launched its flagship L90 SUV on July 31, with deliveries commencing the following day on August 1.
On August 21, Nio began pre-sales for its third-generation Nio ES8 large SUV, with the official launch scheduled for Nio Day 2025 at the end of next month.
Images shared by Nio on its social media platforms show the ES8 attracting significant traction during pre-sales, which also helped boost visibility for the Onvo L90.
Deutsche Bank estimates Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to deliver about 53,000 vehicles in China in August, representing a month-on-month increase of about 29 percent but a year-on-year decline of roughly 17 percent.
In the first three weeks of August, Tesla’s domestic retail sales in China totaled 38,000 units, the team noted.
Tesla China’s new order flow in August are projected to surge by about 100 percent month-on-month to an estimated 130,000 units, primarily driven by the launch of the new six-seat long-wheelbase SUV Model Y L, the team cited dealer feedback as saying.
The US EV maker launched the Model Y L in China on August 19, with an initial estimated delivery date of September.
Customers who currently reserve the six-seat SUV are expected to receive deliveries in October, according to Tesla China’s website.
Tesla’s July retail sales in China totaled 40,617 units, down 12.14 percent year-on-year and down 33.94 percent month-on-month, according to data compiled by CnEVPost.
Deutsche Bank forecasts Xiaomi EV deliveries in August to reach a record 34,000 units, marking a month-on-month increase of about 12 percent and a year-on-year surge of 159 percent.
Domestic retail sales of Xiaomi EV reached 22,200 units in the first three weeks of August, according to the team.
New order flow for Xiaomi EV in August are estimated at around 38,000 units, comprising about 26,000 YU7 SUVs and 12,000 SU7 sedans, Deutsche Bank cited dealer feedback as saying.
The team attributed the month-on-month growth in Xiaomi EV deliveries to improved supply. Xiaomi’s second factory is expected to commence production in September, which will significantly boost monthly sales in the fourth quarter to over 50,000 units, the team said.
Xiaomi EV delivered a record 30,452 vehicles in July, marking its first monthly delivery exceeding 30,000 units, according to data compiled by CnEVPost.
The company launched its five-seat YU7 electric SUV on June 26, positioning it as a Tesla Model Y competitor, with deliveries commencing on July 6.
In early July, several domestic media outlets reported that Xiaomi was conducting extensive hiring for phase two of its EV factory, as the YU7 launch exacerbated existing production constraints.
Deutsche Bank estimates BYD’s August wholesale volume — from automakers to dealers — at about 345,000 units, flat month-on-month but down about 7 percent year-on-year.
The company’s wholesale volume reached 230,000 units in the first three weeks of August, with domestic retail sales hitting 207,000 units, the team noted.
Wang’s team expects BYD’s full-month domestic deliveries in August to be around 320,000 units, a 22 percent increase month-on-month but a 14 percent decline year-on-year.
BYD has largely maintained its retail price discount policy, with new order flow for the full month of August showing a slight month-on-month increase of about 3 percent to about 355,000 units, the team cited dealer feedback as indicating.
Deutsche Bank expects BYD’s overseas sales in August to remain at the 80,000-90,000 unit level, with dealers likely continuing inventory destocking for another month.
Deutsche Bank estimates Li Auto’s full-month deliveries in August at about 30,000 units, representing a 2 percent month-on-month decline and a 38 percent year-on-year drop.
This indicates Li Auto’s monthly deliveries are poised to post a significant year-on-year decline for the third consecutive month.
Li Auto’s domestic retail sales totaled 18,500 units during the first three weeks of August, according to the team.
Driven by the launch of the Li i8 pure-electric SUV, Li Auto’s full-month new order flow is projected to reach about 46,000 units, an 18 percent increase month-on-month, Deutsche Bank cited dealer feedback as saying.
The team anticipates that by the end of August, the backlog of non-cancellable orders for the Li i8 will exceed 16,000 units, which should support Li Auto’s optimistic expectation of delivering 10,000 units of the model by the end of September.
Li Auto launched the Li i8, its first pure-electric SUV, on July 29.
On August 5, Li Auto relaunched the SUV, reducing available variants from three to one and lowering prices following disappointing initial reception.
On August 13, Li Auto said its goal is to deliver 8,000 to 10,000 Li i8 units by the end of September. Deliveries for the model commenced on August 20.
Deutsche Bank forecasts Xpeng’s August deliveries to reach a record 39,000 units, comprising about 36,000 domestic retail deliveries and 3,000 overseas deliveries.
The company’s cumulative domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of August reached 24,000 units, the team noted.
Xpeng’s total new order flow for August is projected at around 37,000 units, a month-on-month decline of 18 percent, as new orders for the recently launched G7 SUV slowed, the team cited dealer feedback as saying.
On August 27, Xpeng’s next-generation flagship sedan P7 will be officially launched, bringing additional new orders on top of the aforementioned 37,000 units, Deutsche Bank stated.
The new P7 debuted and began accepting pre-orders on August 6, with its official launch scheduled for later today.
Deutsche Bank forecasts Leapmotor’s August deliveries to reach a record 53,000 units, representing a month-on-month increase of about 6 percent and a year-on-year rise of about 89 percent. Domestic retail sales are estimated at around 48,000 units, with exports totaling about 5,000 units.
The company achieved 32,000 domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of August, according to the team.
Leapmotor’s new order flow for the full month of August are projected to decline by about 7 percent month-on-month to around 56,000 units, Deutsche Bank cited dealer feedback as indicating.
The month-on-month decline in new orders is primarily due to the normalization of orders for the new B01 sedan, the team noted.
The B01 was officially launched on July 24 and saw its 10,000th unit roll off the production line a week later.
Deutsche Bank forecasts Huawei-backed Aito will deliver 38,500 units in August, representing a month-on-month decline of about 7 percent but a year-on-year increase of about 25 percent.
The brand recorded total domestic retail sales of 24,500 units in the first three weeks of August, according to Deutsche Bank.
Aito’s new order flow in August is projected to decline by about 15 percent month-on-month to about 26,000 units, Deutsche Bank said.
The unveiling of its next-generation M7 SUV in July caused some potential customers to delay purchases, the team noted.
Aito will official launch the new-generation M7 on September 23. It rolled out battery electric vehicle (BEV) variants for the M8 SUV on August 25.
